SOUTHLAND HEALTHCARE ADVISORS
DME & Healthcare Compliance Advisory
Reorder Rate & Attrition Financial Model
Model the 3-year revenue and margin impact of closing your reorder rate gap — broken out by intervention, reimbursement trend, and patient attrition. Enter your own numbers; nothing here is saved or sent anywhere.
Opens your browser's print dialog — choose "Save as PDF" to download a branded copy of your current inputs and results.
1. Assumptions
Your current book of business for this product line.
Use a negative number to model a rate cut, positive to model an increase.
Patients who leave the program entirely each year under current process.
2. Improvement drivers
Select the interventions you're modeling. Each adds reorder-rate lift on top of your baseline. No default values are pre-filled here — enter your own planning estimates.
Placeholder — passive written-reminder studies. See note below.
Placeholder — portal refill-function adherence study. See note below.
Placeholder — Medicare Part D reminder-call RCT. See note below.
Placeholder — automated-call literature used as closest analog. See note below.
Placeholder — conservative end of published SMS studies. See note below.
Rollout ramp — most programs don't hit full lift on day one. Years 2–3 assume full lift sustained.
Patients who reorder consistently are far less likely to leave the program.
Where the placeholder lift values come from
- Reorder cards (package insert or by mail) (3 pts): no DME-specific study exists for printed reminder cards, so this uses email refill-reminder adherence studies as the closest analog for a passive, one-way written nudge.
- Patient portal reminders (6 pts): based on a 2025 study finding reduced statin nonadherence among patients actively using a portal's refill function versus non-users.
- Outbound call cadence (6 pts): based on a randomized controlled trial of pharmacist reminder calls in the Medicare Part D population (Patient Preference and Adherence).
- AI agent outbound dialing (5 pts): no DME- or reorder-specific AI dialing study exists yet, so this borrows from automated call-reminder literature as the nearest available analog.
- SMS / text reminder cadence (5 pts): published studies range from about 5 to 14 percentage points; this uses the conservative end.
These are conservative, aspirational starting points drawn from published healthcare adherence research, not DME-specific results or a guarantee of performance. Overwrite any of them with your own data as soon as you have it.
3. Three-year financial outcome
Status quo (no change) versus modeled intervention, year by year.
3-year cumulative incremental revenue
$0
3-year cumulative incremental margin
$0
Target reorder rate (fully ramped)
0%
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Status quo | |||
| Active patients | |||
| Reorder rate | |||
| Revenue | |||
| With intervention | |||
| Active patients | |||
| Reorder rate | |||
| Revenue | |||
| Incremental revenue | |||
| Incremental margin $ | |||
Schedule a Free Reorder Rate Diagnostic
Find out where patients are dropping off in your resupply cycle — and what it's costing you.
James Bailey, Principal | Southland Healthcare Advisors
james.bailey@southlandhca.com | (904) 206-8125 | southlandhca.com
Notes & disclaimers
Please read before relying on these figures.
- This tool is provided for general informational and planning-discussion purposes only. It is not a financial projection, audit, or guarantee of any specific revenue, margin, or operational outcome.
- CPAP and CGM baseline reorder-rate defaults are drawn from published research (mask/cushion resupply adherence study, PMC7917762; CGM device sourcing and adherence analysis, JMIR Diabetes 2024) and are illustrative starting examples only, not a prediction of your results.
- Driver lift placeholder values are conservative estimates drawn from published healthcare adherence research in adjacent contexts (medication and prescription refill reminders), not DME-specific or Southland client outcomes. Replace them with your own data as soon as you have it.
- Actual results will vary based on factors this model does not capture, including but not limited to payer mix and policy changes, competitive dynamics, staffing execution quality, patient population and diagnosis mix, seasonality, product substitution, and local market conditions.
- All inputs are processed locally in your browser. Nothing you enter is saved, stored, or transmitted to Southland Healthcare Advisors or any third party.
- Southland Healthcare Advisors is a healthcare operations and compliance advisory firm, not a financial advisor, accountant, or attorney. Consult your own finance, accounting, and legal advisors before making business decisions based on this or any financial model.
- © Southland Healthcare Advisors. This tool may be shared and used freely for planning purposes; please retain attribution if reproduced.